I believe that it is more likely that the corporate spread will go up as it is much likely for companies to face distress than for them to reduce the amount of leverage in a short period of time. April 2021 Stock Market Outlook. Slip Ring Market Analysis, Size, Application Analysis, Regional Outlook, Competitive Strategies And Forecasts 2027. PVC Cling Films Market Outlook 2027 Opportunity and Growth Analysis with Top Key Vendors . Collingwood Housing Market Outlook (2021) Lydia McNutt 2020-12-02T10:38:11-05:00 December 1st, 2020 | View Larger Image . The problem is Congress controls the money and doesn’t have the appetite for another $3T CARES act. Please note this post about how I argued it's more likely for the corporate spread to widen than to narrow. Connect on LinkedIn. 2020 was all about beta and understanding how equity markets trade in and around a recession that handed us the fattest pitch we’ve seen in a decade. While the markets have surprised everyone, the list of observations isn't actually all that surprising considering the magnitude of the monetary and fiscal policies. After all, our goal is to invest for the best risk/reward scenarios, whether it means buying stocks, purchase a house, shorting treasuries, or doing a combination of different things. This has to be taken into account when trying to predict where things are headed. Some believe a portion of the Federal stimulus funds will end up in the market by March, since many are receiving checks who don’t really need it. By Leslie Cook. 3) This is an open forum but we expect you to conduct yourself like an adult. A few days later, after things had calmed down a bit, users on the Reddit board r/wallstreetbets noted that GameStop stock was still heavily-shorted and decided to … … As Howard Marks states in his book "Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side", if we can understand where we are in the broader market cycle, we can position ourselves in better odds to win. Reddit; Pinterest; LinkedIn; Tumblr; Breadcrumb Trail Links . February 2, 2021 5:00 PM PST January was certainly a month for the history books. I think getting into trading and/or investing is easier than ever, and news about opportunities or dangers also travel faster than ever. The next part is where I think it will get a bit interesting. The next wave of stimulus will drive another surge of retail investing in the stock market, Bank of America says . Well researched, well written but you haven't taken into account non US events - like a war between Japan and China or a similar financial event that can take everything down with it. More posts from the StockMarket community. Sorry, this post has been removed by the moderators of r/StockMarket. Their market prices the recovery in ahead though and we are getting better. William Yun, CFA Executive Vice President Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. JPowell immediately changed his stance based on the market reaction and turned dovish instead. The point I'm trying to make is that all we need to focus on at the moment is the Fed action and the government policy in order to see where the market is heading for the next 2-5 years. Yes, $1.9 Trillion will make a … Goldman expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 31% in 2021, handily exceeding the consensus estimate for 22% growth. Editorial Note: Forbes may earn a … 3 reasons why investors should buy the stock market's dip after a Reddit-fuelled short-squeeze rattled hedge funds, according to JPMorgan's quant guru Matthew Fox Feb 2, 2021, 5:05 AM It's been awhile since I last posted one due to a project at my full-time job. A heck of a lot rides on what happens on January 5th. Higher amount of CLOs (collateralized loan obligations), which are similar to the collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) seen in 2008. 1 . The selection of small-caps targeted by the Reddit … Great point nonetheless! The rest of world will inflate. Will it scare off this new generation or will they see through the ‘market cycles’ and buy every dip. Our objective is to provide short and mid term trade ideas, market analysis & commentary for active traders and investors. Real Estate; Local News; Housing market to continue recovery into 2021: CMHC outlook . Crash is always a possibility. 2) Important: We have strict political posting guidelines (described here and here). If the Dems win both GA Senate seats we're going to see a lot more stimulus. Existing home sales dropped to a six-month low in February 2021 (lowest level since September 2020) to an annual rate of 6.22 million, a drop of 6.6% from January, according to the National Association of Realtors. Favorable Fed and government policies -> Positive to the risk-assets, Signs of excess: EV bubble, bitcoin, risk assets rally, margin investing record highs, market sentiment at the highest, put to call volume ratio at the lowest, and so on. 2021 will be much more about stock picking (alpha) and should favor those companies that can deliver earnings growth that isn’t already expected … That means we need to keep a bigger picture of where we are now and where we are heading, per the Mosaic theory as I mentioned previously in #2 of this post. That was also caused by the Fed being too hawkish than the market could handle. Just these two graphs show the extent of the stimulus provided to the country. Corporate spreads are compressed, for that matter all rates including munis, ABS, CLOs, loans, and short-term rates (don't get hung up on any unfamiliar names or security types, as the point is that we are seeing both record amounts of leverage when the yields are at the lowest point. We have seen an unprecedented (probably the most used word in 2020) amount of actions from both the Fed and the gov't. Please note that as a topic focused subreddit we have higher posting standards than much of Reddit: 1) Please direct all advice requests and beginner questions to the stickied daily threads. are trending up. This past Friday I made some strongly worded statements that I did not believe BNB would soon get over $500. By The Trader. The reverse correlation between DXY and the equity markets is nothing new. https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/knxih7/2021_market_outlook Collingwood housing market to favour sellers in 2021, prices expected to rise 8%. That is why it is critical to understand what's going on around us right now. Updated: Dec 14, 2020, 12:37pm. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that their policies are so significant and so powerful that they are almost single-handedly driving the economic recovery and the markets. Updated: December 28, 2020 11:05 AM ET | Originally published: December 22, 2020 SHARE. Benjamin Curry Editor. Nokia (NYSE: NOK) is getting left out of the market’s incredibly strong performance.Aside from the Jan. 27 short-squeeze from Reddit users that lifted NOK stock to a … Investors using record amount of margins to invest. Violations will result in a likely 60 day ban upon first instance. How? February 25, 2021. Thank you for the note! What's really impressive is the movement not into gold but into bitty in my opinion. We also don't need to worry about the government reducing its deficit as they have also promised to spend for the country, and worry about the deficits later. There is a MASSIVE correction coming. Consumer Market Outlook . Press J to jump to the feed. This leads me to the topic for today's post. But at the same time vaccines are coming. LOOKING AHEAD: CAPITAL MARKETS EXPECTATIONS & PORTFOLIO POSITIONING . Anna-Louise Jackson Contributor. To summarize, we've got a few forces in action. One of my concerns is what happens when a country like China goes completely digital to their own blockchain currency. Published by H. Tankovska, Feb 10, 2021 This statistic displays the share of social network website visits obtained by Reddit in the United Kingdom (UK) from April 2015 to January 2021. Remember 2018 Christmas market meltdown? Now we’ve added the fed continuously propping things up. A rosy picture across the main indices in London in early trading. EDIT: to clarify, I mean devalue. Nice to see some more realistic analysis. But why would Fed try to kill the economy with tighter monetary policy? Moderators remove posts from feeds for a variety of reasons, including keeping communities safe, civil, and true to their purpose. Disagree, argue, criticize, but no personal attacks. Robinhood is … Haven’t heard the fed action justification before. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns. The region saw average residential price rise to $202,195 in 2020 (Jan. 1-Oct. 31) up from $185,430 in 2019 (Jan. 1-Dec. 31). More debt, including both IG and HY, are being issued across all sectors, all countries, and all types of institutions, even at the individual levels. Emily Graffeo. Markets started 2021 on a high note on the back of a sensational year (after stocks plunged over 30% … What started off as a bright year for the housing market … I hope everyone has a great New Year's Eve and look forward to a great 2021! Remember these words. Source: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-11/56746-MBR.pdf. If they don't, we likely won't see much of anything - McConnell said today that he thought we should be done with stimulus. We'll see. All of this printing in the U.S. would leave them unaffected and possibly given a better chance at surpassing the U.S. economy. Thanks for reading and see you next year! Feb. 9, 2021, 04:18 PM Cindy Ord/Getty Images The energy sector has 42% upside potential as it plays catch-up to the ongoing surge in oil prices, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said in a note on Tuesday. Therefore, I have positioned myself for shares in stocks, as opposed to call options or bull spreads (as they are too short-term), short treasuries, long gold, long cleantech, and a good amount of cash (20-30% cash). some sectors will take a while to recover but overall i believe we have nowhere but up to go. Personally, I am amazed at all of these as they mostly defy the traditional econ 101 or finance 101 schools of thought. Hi all. Updated Market Outlook: Reddit bandwagon rolls on.... Shares continue to slide in Europe as the US tries to compute the latest moves in the shorts battle. 86 votes, 25 comments. The U.S. would have to make a choice to either stop printing money or come up with something else. Anna-Louise Jackson Contributor. I’m not particularly confident in any rallies in us equities especially considering the dichotomy of stocks going up while populous getting crushed under record unemployment and instability. Biden learned from 2008 that too much stimulus is better than not enough. But the monetary and fiscal policies are too powerful to fight against. In that amount of time we have rocketed past $500, slapped $525 in the face, and are quickly approaching the $550 barrier. We don't need to worry about the Fed turning hawkish as the Fed has explicitly promised us we won't get any balance sheet contraction or rate hikes for the next 2-3 years until we have beaten the inflation target on average. Economic conditions are improving as indicated by rising corporate profits. Im bullish on stocks but concerned about this B117 Covid strain. 1 . Absolutely agreed. This is while being in lockdown, which isn’t going to happen in the US. Mortgage rates kept reaching new historic lows — 15 of them so far, to be exact — and … https://www.reddit.com/r/Midasinvestors/comments/ju7zbi/investing_philosophy_plz_read_this/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf. Feb. 16, 2021, 12:45 PM. The US equities may be going up, but the dollar value looks like it’s fallen off a cliff. Normally, they go the opposite directions). This includes beginner questions and portfolio help. This is all happening when COVID cases and deaths are surging to record highs and a lot of the countries have imposed restrictions. I will be observing the markets from the sidelines for a bit and decide when to pounce. 1 . Saint John housing market to favour sellers in 2021, prices expected to rise 5% The Saint John housing market is expected to continue to favour seller in 2021, with prices continuing on an upward trajectory. It's because of the fear of inflation. Form-fill-seal Equipment Market Outlook 2021 by Technology Development, Research Study, Growth Factors, Statistics, Forecasting 2027. Inflation can get out of hand in no time and their role is to prevent that from happening. Appreciate the post and info! https://www.reddit.com/r/StockMarket/comments/knxkb9/2021_market_outlook I don’t see them placing paying anything back high on any priority list. Plastic Bottle Reverse Vending Machine Market Worldwide Demand, Trends, Growth Potential & Opportunity Outlook 2021-2027. We use cookies on our websites for a number of purposes, including analytics and performance, functionality and advertising. If you look closely, most, if not all, recessions were just after when the Fed raised rates. I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Money's 2021 Real Estate Outlook: What to Expect for Mortgage Rates, Home Prices and More. https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-double-down-on-stocks-pushing-margin-debt-to-record-11609077600?mod=itp_wsj&mod=djemITP_h, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html. The report, Morguard’s 23rd annual edition, revealed that for 2020 investor confidence in the multi-suite residential and industrial property sectors remained robust. Risk assets (stocks, real estate, loans, bitcoin?) Not surprisingly, energy, cyclicals, and transportations are all struggling compared to the strengths in the tech sector. Morgan Stanley: $3900 - After a year of big swings in valuations, 2021 will be about who can deliver on earnings. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts, https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-11/56746-MBR.pdf. Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment Market Competitive Insights and Precise Outlook 2021-2030. Don't focus on this too much if you are not familiar with the security but keep this in mind for later. Surpassing the U.S. economy in 14 Canadian cities National Housing market to continue into! 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